Middle East on the Brink: A Tug of War Between Escalation Risks and Deterring Factors

Tensions between Israel and Iran are escalating, while ceasefire negotiations in Gaza have reached an impasse. This situation risks expanding into a larger war, but factors exist on both sides that discourage a full-scale conflict. Let's examine this in detail.

1. Israel's Assassination Operations and Iran's Expected Retaliation

• Israel assassinated a high-ranking Hezbollah commander in Beirut on July 30

• On the same day, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran

• Iran's retaliatory attack seems inevitable, but the timing and scale are uncertain

2. U.S. Intervention and Defensive Posture

• U.S. has deployed an aircraft carrier strike group and a Marine expeditionary unit to the Middle East

• F-22 stealth fighters urgently deployed

• Building a defense system with Western and Arab allies

• U.S.-led defense coalition expected to intercept most of Iran's attacks

3. Iran and Hezbollah's Dilemma

• Don't want a full-scale war, but recognize the need for retaliation

• Burdened by domestic economic issues and political instability

• Internal differences of opinion and distrust within security agencies in Iran

• Iranian citizens already struggling with frequent power outages and water shortages, making it difficult to support a war

4. Deadlock in Gaza Ceasefire Negotiations

• Tense phone call between President Biden and Prime Minister Netanyahu (Biden: "Stop bullshitting me!!!")

• Netanyahu's new conditions delay ceasefire talks

• Leadership vacuum in Hamas due to Haniyeh's assassination

• Israeli military and intelligence agencies agree on the need for a ceasefire, but clash with Netanyahu's political stance

5. Risks of War Escalation and Limiting Factors

• Possibility of direct conflict between Israel and Iran

• Continued instability due to difficulties in Gaza ceasefire negotiations

• Increasing uncertainty about U.S. support

• Both sides recognize the economic and political burdens of a full-scale war

• Iranian regime fears that further destruction of infrastructure could lead to loss of public support

Conclusion:

Israel's assassination operations, Iran's inevitable retaliation, and the deadlock in Gaza ceasefire negotiations are intertwining to heighten tensions in the Middle East. However, factors exist on both sides to avoid a full-scale war, which could result in limited retaliatory attacks. One point to watch is when Iran will retaliate; Iran may be waiting for the complete deployment of the U.S. carrier strike group. This would naturally allow most of their missile attacks to be intercepted mid-air, avoiding serious damage to Israel while giving Iran the justification of sufficient retaliation. In any case, the likelihood of continued tension in the Middle East remains high. Ultimately, ceasefire negotiations in Gaza appear to be the key to stabilizing the situation.