Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco | Does Ultra-Low Unemployment Spur Rapid Wage Growth?

This data-driven academic research done by Fed of San Francisco hints that current economic boom in the US can hardly lead to a sharp wage jump nonlinearly.

“The unemployment rate ended 2018 at just under 4%, substantially lower than most estimates of the natural rate. Could such an ostensibly tight labor market lead to a sharp pickup in wage growth from its recent moderate pace, such that the relationship between wage growth and unemployment is not always linear? Investigations using state-level data show no economically significant nonlinearity between wage growth and unemployment that would predict an abrupt jump in wage growth.” — Read on www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2019/january/does-ultra-low-unemployment-spur-rapid-wage-growth/